Pavia vs Casatese
Italy - Serie D Group D
Pavia are creating the better shooting profile with average 4.43 overall shots and 1.28 xG. Their season scoring average is 0.63 goals per game, so the next major chance is likely to come from their side.
Result Probability
The result market leans toward Casatese at 39%. The points profile supports that read: Pavia average 1 PPG and Casatese average 2.33 PPG in the comparable split.
Key Statistics
Avg. Goals
Below average
2.19League 2.46
Over 2.5 Goals
Average
50%League 47%
Both Teams Score
Above average
57%League 47%
Corners
Average
8.66League 9.38
Corner volume is the clearest signal here. Pavia average 7.25 corners in this split, compared with the league benchmark of 9.38, which points to sustained attacking territory.
Over / Under
0.5
1+ gol
OVER75%UNDER25%1.5
2+ gol
OVER62%UNDER38%2.5
3+ gol
OVER50%UNDER50%3.5
4+ gol
OVER18%UNDER82%
The recent scoring sample is stronger for Under 3.5 at 82% across the last 10 relevant matches. That makes the goal market a top pick for this match.
Team Performance
Pavia
Home
Casatese
Away
Points & Results
- 0.75PPG1.63
- 0%Wins50%
- 13%First to Score38%
Goals Scored & Conceded
- Scored/game0.631.50
- Conceded/game0.881.38
- xG1.280.93
- xGA1.271.19
Trends
- 50%Both Score63%
- 38%Clean Sheet25%
Over 9.5 Corners
Pavia's Last 3 Matches Ended with Over 9.5 Corners
Under 9.5 Corners
Pavia's Last 7 Matches Ended with Under 9.5 Corners
No Wins
Pavia hasn't Won in 8 Matches
Matches Concending Goals
Pavia has Conceded in its last 4 Matches
Under 9.5 Corners
Casatese's Last 5 Matches Ended with Under 9.5 Corners
- 18/10/2026, 13:00Serie D Group DPistoiese1 - 0LPavia18/10/2026, 13:00Serie D Group DPistoiese
1 - 0
PaviaL - 11/10/2026, 13:00Serie D Group DPavia2 - 2DVaresina11/10/2026, 13:00Serie D Group DPavia
2 - 2
VaresinaD - 04/10/2026, 13:00Serie D Group DCorreggese2 - 1LPavia04/10/2026, 13:00Serie D Group DCorreggese
2 - 1
PaviaL - 27/09/2026, 13:00Serie D Group DPavia1 - 1DArconatese27/09/2026, 13:00Serie D Group DPavia
1 - 1
ArconateseD - 20/09/2026, 13:00Serie D Group DSant'Angelo0 - 0DPavia20/09/2026, 13:00Serie D Group DSant'Angelo
0 - 0
PaviaD - 16/09/2026, 16:00Serie D Group DPavia0 - 0DSolbiatese 191116/09/2026, 16:00Serie D Group DPavia
0 - 0
Solbiatese 1911D - 12/09/2026, 18:30Serie D Group DOltrepò1 - 1DPavia12/09/2026, 18:30Serie D Group DOltrepò
1 - 1
PaviaD
Pavia scored in 4/7 recent form matches and averaged 0.71 goals.
- 18/10/2026, 13:00Serie D Group DCasatese1 - 2LPro Patria18/10/2026, 13:00Serie D Group DCasatese
1 - 2
Pro PatriaL - 11/10/2026, 13:00Serie D Group DCittadella Vis Modena0 - 1WCasatese11/10/2026, 13:00Serie D Group DCittadella Vis Modena
0 - 1
CasateseW - 04/10/2026, 13:00Serie D Group DCasatese0 - 3LPistoiese04/10/2026, 13:00Serie D Group DCasatese
0 - 3
PistoieseL - 27/09/2026, 13:00Serie D Group DCasatese4 - 2WVaresina27/09/2026, 13:00Serie D Group DCasatese
4 - 2
VaresinaW - 20/09/2026, 13:00Serie D Group DCorreggese1 - 3WCasatese20/09/2026, 13:00Serie D Group DCorreggese
1 - 3
CasateseW - 16/09/2026, 13:00Serie D Group DCasatese1 - 2LSant'Angelo16/09/2026, 13:00Serie D Group DCasatese
1 - 2
Sant'AngeloL - 12/09/2026, 16:00Serie D Group DSolbiatese 19110 - 0DCasatese12/09/2026, 16:00Serie D Group DSolbiatese 1911
0 - 0
CasateseD
Casatese scored in 5/7 recent form matches and averaged 1.43 goals.
Casatese is +138% better in terms of Scored/game
Pavia is +57% better in terms of Conceded/game
Pavia is +38% better in terms of xG
Casatese is +7% better in terms of xGA
Both teams are equal in terms of First-Half Form
Casatese is +13% better in terms of Offsides
Pavia is +26% better in terms of Corners
Both teams are equal in terms of Cards
Pavia is +48% better in terms of Shots on Target
| # | Form | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | +18 | 24 | |
| 2 | Pro Patria | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 19 | |
| 3 | Castellanzese | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 18 | |
| 4 | Lentigione | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 17 | |
| 5 | Pro Sesto | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 15 | |
| 6 | Casatese | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 13 | |
| 7 | Città di Varese | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 12 | |
| 8 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 11 | |
| 9 | Correggese | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 11 | |
| 10 | Solbiatese 1911 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 10 | |
| 11 | Sant'Angelo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 9 | |
| 12 | Crema | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 8 | |
| 13 | Varesina | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 7 | |
| 14 | Pavia | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 6 | |
| 15 | Tropical Coriano | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 5 | |
| 16 | Oltrepò | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 5 | |
| 17 | Arconatese | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 3 | |
| 18 | Pontedera | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 22 | -16 | 3 |
Pavia vs Casatese: Statistics and Analysis - Serie D Group D 2026/2027
On this page you can check all the key statistics for Pavia vs Casatese - goals, corners, form, trends, head-to-head record and more.
This Serie D Group D match will be played on 25/10/2026 (Sunday) at 13:30.
The venue is Stadio Pietro Fortunati.
The fixture is part of game week 9th of the Serie D Group D season. Pavia currently sits in position 14th of the Serie D Group D table. Casatese occupies position 6th.
Stat Probabilities for Pavia vs Casatese
Our projection system combines both teams' numbers into percentage chances for the key statistical markets in this match:
Both teams to score: our projection puts the chance of both teams scoring in Pavia vs Casatese at 57%.
Over 2.5 goals: the combined stats for Pavia and Casatese point to a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals in this match.
For our tips built on these numbers, see the Pavia vs Casatese prediction page.
Who is the favorite in Pavia vs Casatese?
According to the latest match odds, is the favorite at an implied probability of about 0%. The full 1X2 market has Pavia at 2.73, the draw at 3.2, and Casatese at 2.73.
Overall performance in the Serie D Group D
Pavia's record so far reads 0W-6D-2L from 8 played a win rate of 0% at 0.75 points per game.
Casatese stands at 4W-1D-3L from 8 played, winning 50% of their matches at 1.63 points per game.
In their last five, Pavia has gone 0W-3D-2L, averaging 0.6 points per game.
Casatese's last five read 3W-0D-2L, at 1.8 points per game.
At home, Pavia has a 0% win rate (0W-4D-0L from 4 played).
On the road, Casatese has won 67% of their matches (2W-1D-0L from 3 played).
Goal statistics for Pavia vs Casatese
In attack, Pavia averages 0.63 goals scored per game in the Serie D Group D (5 in total), while conceding 0.88 per game (7 in total).
Casatese averages 1.5 goals scored per game (12 in total) and 1.38 conceded per game (11 in total).
More detail - goals home and away, expected goals and first-to-score rates - is in the tables above.
Head-to-head: Pavia vs Casatese
Pavia and Casatese have met 2 times in recent years. The record:
Pavia wins: 0
Draws: 1
Casatese wins: 1
Frequently asked questions about Pavia vs Casatese
When is Pavia vs Casatese?
The match will be played on 25/10/2026 (Sunday) at 13:30.
What is the head-to-head record between Pavia and Casatese?
Across their last 2 meetings the record is 0-1-1 (Pavia wins – draws – Casatese wins).
What was the last match between Pavia and Casatese?
The two sides last met on 19/04/2026, and the result was Casatese 1 vs 0 Pavia. Full details: Pavia vs Casatese, 19/04/2026.
Who is the favorite in Pavia vs Casatese?
is the favorite at odds of , an implied probability of about 0%. Pavia is priced at 2.73, the draw at 3.2 and Casatese at 2.73.
Where can I find a Pavia vs Casatese prediction?
You can find our full prediction, including in-depth analysis on the Pavia vs Casatese prediction page.
Where can I find Pavia vs Casatese stats?
All key statistics for Pavia vs Casatese are on this page, updated in real time.
Where can I watch Pavia vs Casatese?
Live streaming information is available on our Pavia vs Casatese stream page.