Independiente vs Boca Juniors

Argentina - Primera División

Independiente

v.s

25 Oct 2026 16:00

Boca Juniors

Boca Juniors are creating the better shooting profile with average 4.67 overall shots and 1.62 xG. Their season scoring average is 1.5 goals per game, so the next major chance is likely to come from their side.

Result Probability

23%
Independiente to win
28%
Draw
49%
Boca Juniors to win

The result market leans toward Boca Juniors at 52%. The points profile supports that read: Independiente average 1.43 PPG and Boca Juniors average 1.6 PPG in the comparable split.

Head-to-Head
Independiente
3
wins
6
draws
Boca Juniors
3
wins
42%
BTTS
5/12
83%
OVER 0.5
10/12
50%
OVER 1.5
6/12
25%
OVER 2.5
3/12

Key Statistics

  • Avg. Goals

    Above average

    2.42

    League 2.17

  • Over 2.5 Goals

    Average

    40%

    League 38%

  • Both Teams Score

    Above average

    55%

    League 47%

  • Cards

    Below average

    4.50

    League 5.07

  • Corners

    Above average

    10.77

    League 8.84

Based on 450 completed matches this season.

Corner volume is the clearest signal here. Independiente average 11.36 corners in this split, compared with the league benchmark of 8.84, which points to sustained attacking territory.

Over / Under

  • 0.5

    1+ gol

    OVER
    95%
    UNDER
    5%

  • 1.5

    2+ gol

    OVER
    75%
    UNDER
    25%

  • 2.5

    3+ gol

    OVER
    45%
    UNDER
    55%

  • 3.5

    4+ gol

    OVER
    25%
    UNDER
    75%

Based on the whole season for both teams combined

The recent scoring sample is stronger for Over 0.5 at 95% across the last 10 relevant matches. That makes the goal market a top pick for this match.

Team Performance

Independiente

Home

DWLWD
VS

Boca Juniors

Away

WDWWW

Points & Results

  • 1.50
    PPG
    1.80
  • 40%
    Wins
    47%
  • 57%
    First to Score
    53%

Goals Scored & Conceded

  • 1.27
    Scored/game
    1.50
  • 1.20
    Conceded/game
    0.87
  • 1.46
    xG
    1.62
  • 1.33
    xGA
    1.15

Trends

  • 57%
    Both Score
    53%
  • 30%
    Clean Sheet
    43%

Independiente vs Boca Juniors: Statistics and Analysis - Primera División 2026

On this page you can check all the key statistics for Independiente vs Boca Juniors - goals, corners, form, trends, head-to-head record and more.

This Primera División match will be played on 25/10/2026 (Sunday) at 20:00.

The venue is Estadio Libertadores de América.

The fixture is part of game week 14th of the Primera División season. Independiente currently sits in position 12th of the Primera División table. Boca Juniors occupies position 5th.

Stat Probabilities for Independiente vs Boca Juniors

Our projection system combines both teams' numbers into percentage chances for the key statistical markets in this match:

Both teams to score: our projection puts the chance of both teams scoring in Independiente vs Boca Juniors at 55%.

Over 2.5 goals: the combined stats for Independiente and Boca Juniors point to a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals in this match.

For our tips built on these numbers, see the Independiente vs Boca Juniors prediction page.

Who is the favorite in Independiente vs Boca Juniors?

According to the latest match odds, Boca Juniors is the favorite at 2.08 an implied probability of about 48.08%. The full 1X2 market has Independiente at 4.22, the draw at 3.47, and Boca Juniors at 2.08.

Overall performance in the Primera División

Independiente's record so far reads 12W-9D-9L from 30 played a win rate of 40% at 1.5 points per game.

Boca Juniors stands at 14W-12D-4L from 30 played, winning 47% of their matches at 1.8 points per game.

In their last five, Independiente has gone 2W-2D-1L, averaging 1.6 points per game.

Boca Juniors's last five read 4W-1D-0L, at 2.6 points per game.

At home, Independiente has a 36% win rate (5W-5D-4L from 14 played).

On the road, Boca Juniors has won 40% of their matches (6W-6D-3L from 15 played).

Goal statistics for Independiente vs Boca Juniors

In attack, Independiente averages 1.27 goals scored per game in the Primera División (38 in total), while conceding 1.2 per game (36 in total).

Boca Juniors averages 1.5 goals scored per game (45 in total) and 0.87 conceded per game (26 in total).

Independiente's top scorer this season is Gabriel Ávalos, with 11 goals.

For Boca Juniors, Miguel Merentiel leads the scoring charts with 10 goals this season.

Independiente's main creator is Gabriel Ávalos, with 5 assists.

Lautaro Emanuel Blanco tops the Boca Juniors assist chart with 5.

More detail - goals home and away, expected goals and first-to-score rates - is in the tables above.

Head-to-head: Independiente vs Boca Juniors

Independiente and Boca Juniors have met 12 times in recent years. The record:

  • Independiente wins: 3

  • Draws: 6

  • Boca Juniors wins: 3

Frequently asked questions about Independiente vs Boca Juniors

When is Independiente vs Boca Juniors?

The match will be played on 25/10/2026 (Sunday) at 20:00.

What is the head-to-head record between Independiente and Boca Juniors?

Across their last 12 meetings the record is 3-6-3 (Independiente wins – draws – Boca Juniors wins).

What was the last match between Independiente and Boca Juniors?

The two sides last met on 11/04/2026, and the result was Boca Juniors 1 vs 1 Independiente. Full details: Independiente vs Boca Juniors, 11/04/2026.

Who is the favorite in Independiente vs Boca Juniors?

Boca Juniors is the favorite at odds of 2.08, an implied probability of about 48.08%. Independiente is priced at 4.22, the draw at 3.47 and Boca Juniors at 2.08.

Where can I find a Independiente vs Boca Juniors prediction?

You can find our full prediction, including in-depth analysis on the Independiente vs Boca Juniors prediction page.

Where can I find Independiente vs Boca Juniors stats?

All key statistics for Independiente vs Boca Juniors are on this page, updated in real time.

Where can I watch Independiente vs Boca Juniors?

Live streaming information is available on our Independiente vs Boca Juniors stream page.