Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín
Colombia - Categoria Primera A
Atlético Nacional are creating the better shooting profile with average 6.33 overall shots and 1.77 xG. Their season scoring average is 1.97 goals per game, so the next major chance is likely to come from their side.
Result Probability
The result market leans toward Atlético Nacional at 55%. The points profile supports that read: Atlético Nacional average 2.67 PPG and Independiente Medellín average 1.47 PPG in the comparable split.
- 15/10/2026, 01:30Copa ColombiaAtlético Nacional3 - 2Independiente Medellín15/10/2026, 01:30Copa ColombiaAtlético Nacional
3 - 2
Independiente Medellín - 12/04/2026, 01:20Categoria Primera AIndependiente Medellín2 - 3Atlético Nacional12/04/2026, 01:20Categoria Primera AIndependiente Medellín
2 - 3
Atlético Nacional - 18/12/2025, 00:30Copa ColombiaIndependiente Medellín0 - 1Atlético Nacional18/12/2025, 00:30Copa ColombiaIndependiente Medellín
0 - 1
Atlético Nacional - 13/12/2025, 22:00Copa ColombiaAtlético Nacional0 - 0Independiente Medellín13/12/2025, 22:00Copa ColombiaAtlético Nacional
0 - 0
Independiente Medellín - 04/12/2025, 23:30Categoria Primera AAtlético Nacional2 - 1Independiente Medellín04/12/2025, 23:30Categoria Primera AAtlético Nacional
2 - 1
Independiente Medellín
Key Statistics
Avg. Goals
Above average
2.78League 2.54
Over 2.5 Goals
Well above avg
62%League 48%
Both Teams Score
Average
54%League 54%
Cards
Average
5.91League 5.93
Corners
Above average
10.57League 8.99
Corner volume is the clearest signal here. Independiente Medellín average 9.14 corners in this split, compared with the league benchmark of 8.99, which points to sustained attacking territory.
Over / Under
0.5
1+ gol
OVER95%UNDER5%1.5
2+ gol
OVER85%UNDER15%2.5
3+ gol
OVER60%UNDER40%3.5
4+ gol
OVER30%UNDER70%
The recent scoring sample is stronger for Over 0.5 at 95% across the last 10 relevant matches. That makes the goal market a top pick for this match.
Team Performance
Atlético Nacional
Home
Independiente Medellín
Away
Points & Results
- 2.15PPG1.48
- 69%Wins42%
- 51%First to Score39%
Goals Scored & Conceded
- Scored/game1.971.42
- Conceded/game0.851.30
- xG1.771.54
- xGA1.191.15
Trends
- 44%Both Score64%
- 33%Clean Sheet21%
- 23/10/2026, 01:00Categoria Primera AAtlético Nacional3 - 0WDeportivo Pasto23/10/2026, 01:00Categoria Primera AAtlético Nacional
3 - 0
Deportivo PastoW - 20/10/2026, 23:30Categoria Primera ACúcuta Deportivo1 - 0LAtlético Nacional20/10/2026, 23:30Categoria Primera ACúcuta Deportivo
1 - 0
Atlético NacionalL - 17/10/2026, 20:00Categoria Primera ABoyacá Chicó1 - 4WAtlético Nacional17/10/2026, 20:00Categoria Primera ABoyacá Chicó
1 - 4
Atlético NacionalW - 08/10/2026, 23:05Categoria Primera AAtlético Nacional0 - 0DDeportes Tolima08/10/2026, 23:05Categoria Primera AAtlético Nacional
0 - 0
Deportes TolimaD - 01/10/2026, 01:00Categoria Primera AAtlético Nacional3 - 1WJunior Barranquilla01/10/2026, 01:00Categoria Primera AAtlético Nacional
3 - 1
Junior BarranquillaW - 25/09/2026, 00:30Categoria Primera AAtlético Nacional1 - 1DMillonarios25/09/2026, 00:30Categoria Primera AAtlético Nacional
1 - 1
MillonariosD - 21/09/2026, 01:15Categoria Primera ALlaneros2 - 0LAtlético Nacional21/09/2026, 01:15Categoria Primera ALlaneros
2 - 0
Atlético NacionalL
Atlético Nacional scored in 4/7 recent form matches and averaged 1.57 goals.
- 18/10/2026, 01:10Categoria Primera AIndependiente Medellín0 - 2LOnce Caldas18/10/2026, 01:10Categoria Primera AIndependiente Medellín
0 - 2
Once CaldasL - 12/10/2026, 01:15Categoria Primera AAmérica de Cali1 - 2WIndependiente Medellín12/10/2026, 01:15Categoria Primera AAmérica de Cali
1 - 2
Independiente MedellínW - 06/10/2026, 00:00Categoria Primera AIndependiente Medellín0 - 1LSanta Fe06/10/2026, 00:00Categoria Primera AIndependiente Medellín
0 - 1
Santa FeL - 30/09/2026, 01:05Categoria Primera AIndependiente Medellín2 - 2DMillonarios30/09/2026, 01:05Categoria Primera AIndependiente Medellín
2 - 2
MillonariosD - 27/09/2026, 01:20Categoria Primera AJunior Barranquilla2 - 0LIndependiente Medellín27/09/2026, 01:20Categoria Primera AJunior Barranquilla
2 - 0
Independiente MedellínL - 22/09/2026, 23:00Categoria Primera AIndependiente Medellín2 - 1WJaguares de Córdoba22/09/2026, 23:00Categoria Primera AIndependiente Medellín
2 - 1
Jaguares de CórdobaW - 18/09/2026, 00:00Categoria Primera AAtlético Bucaramanga2 - 2DIndependiente Medellín18/09/2026, 00:00Categoria Primera AAtlético Bucaramanga
2 - 2
Independiente MedellínD
Independiente Medellín scored in 4/7 recent form matches and averaged 1.14 goals.
Atlético Nacional is +39% better in terms of Scored/game
Atlético Nacional is +53% better in terms of Conceded/game
Atlético Nacional is +15% better in terms of xG
Independiente Medellín is +3% better in terms of xGA
Atlético Nacional is +60% better in terms of First-Half Form
Atlético Nacional is +48% better in terms of Offsides
Atlético Nacional is +7% better in terms of Corners
Independiente Medellín is +10% better in terms of Cards
Atlético Nacional is +28% better in terms of Shots on Target
Predicted Lineup
Independiente Medellín
Coach: Luis Amaranto Perea Mosquera
Substitutes
Starting
Atlético Nacional
Independiente Medellín
| # | Form | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Nacional | 39 | 27 | 3 | 9 | 77 | 33 | +44 | 84 | |
| 2 | América de Cali | 35 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 52 | 30 | +22 | 62 | |
| 3 | Santa Fe | 37 | 15 | 15 | 7 | 56 | 38 | +18 | 60 | |
| 4 | Deportes Tolima | 38 | 15 | 12 | 11 | 49 | 39 | +10 | 57 | |
| 5 | Deportivo Cali | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 43 | 25 | +18 | 56 | |
| 6 | Junior Barranquilla | 39 | 15 | 11 | 13 | 57 | 51 | +6 | 56 | |
| 7 | Once Caldas | 36 | 13 | 15 | 8 | 52 | 42 | +10 | 54 | |
| 8 | Millonarios | 35 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 55 | 37 | +18 | 52 | |
| 9 | Independiente Medellín | 33 | 14 | 7 | 12 | 47 | 43 | +4 | 49 | |
| 10 | Atlético Bucaramanga | 32 | 11 | 15 | 6 | 48 | 32 | +16 | 48 | |
| 11 | Águilas Doradas | 33 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 45 | |
| 12 | La Equidad | 36 | 10 | 15 | 11 | 46 | 56 | -10 | 45 | |
| 13 | Deportivo Pasto | 35 | 12 | 7 | 16 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 43 | |
| 14 | Llaneros | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 33 | 40 | -7 | 39 | |
| 15 | Cúcuta Deportivo | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 39 | 54 | -15 | 37 | |
| 16 | Fortaleza CEIF | 33 | 6 | 15 | 12 | 37 | 48 | -11 | 33 | |
| 17 | Alianza | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 28 | 53 | -25 | 32 | |
| 18 | Boyacá Chicó | 33 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 26 | 57 | -31 | 29 | |
| 19 | Jaguares de Córdoba | 33 | 7 | 7 | 19 | 36 | 61 | -25 | 28 | |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 33 | 3 | 14 | 16 | 25 | 50 | -25 | 23 |
Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín: Statistics and Analysis - Categoria Primera A 2026
On this page you can check all the key statistics for Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín - goals, corners, form, trends, head-to-head record and more.
This Categoria Primera A match will be played on 25/10/2026 (Sunday) at 23:10.
The venue is Estadio Atanasio Girardot.
The fixture is part of game week 16th of the Categoria Primera A season. Atlético Nacional currently sits in position 1st of the Categoria Primera A table. Independiente Medellín occupies position 9th.
Stat Probabilities for Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín
Our projection system combines both teams' numbers into percentage chances for the key statistical markets in this match:
Both teams to score: our projection puts the chance of both teams scoring in Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín at 54%.
Over 2.5 goals: the combined stats for Atlético Nacional and Independiente Medellín point to a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals in this match.
Atlético Nacional over 1.5 goals scored: the numbers give Atlético Nacional a 78% chance of scoring 2 or more goals.
Over 4.5 cards: Atlético Nacional's matches have produced 5 or more total cards 75% of the time.
Over 4.5 cards: Independiente Medellín's matches have produced 5 or more total cards 75% of the time.
Independiente Medellín over 2.5 cards: Independiente Medellín has been shown 3 or more cards in 73% of their matches in the competition.
For our tips built on these numbers, see the Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín prediction page.
Who is the favorite in Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín?
According to the latest match odds, Atlético Nacional is the favorite at 1.852 an implied probability of about 54.00%. The full 1X2 market has Atlético Nacional at 1.852, the draw at 8.5, and Independiente Medellín at 5.01.
Overall performance in the Categoria Primera A
Atlético Nacional's record so far reads 27W-3D-9L from 39 played a win rate of 69% at 2.15 points per game.
Independiente Medellín stands at 14W-7D-12L from 33 played, winning 42% of their matches at 1.48 points per game.
In their last five, Atlético Nacional has gone 3W-1D-1L, averaging 2 points per game.
Independiente Medellín's last five read 1W-1D-3L, at 0.8 points per game.
At home, Atlético Nacional has a 83% win rate (15W-3D-0L from 18 played).
On the road, Independiente Medellín has won 40% of their matches (6W-4D-5L from 15 played).
Goal statistics for Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín
In attack, Atlético Nacional averages 1.97 goals scored per game in the Categoria Primera A (77 in total), while conceding 0.85 per game (33 in total).
Independiente Medellín averages 1.42 goals scored per game (47 in total) and 1.3 conceded per game (43 in total).
Atlético Nacional's top scorer this season is Alfredo Morelos, with 14 goals.
For Independiente Medellín, John Edwin Montaño Preciado leads the scoring charts with 7 goals this season.
Atlético Nacional's main creator is Juan Manuel Rengifo Duque, with 7 assists.
Leyser Chaverra Rentería tops the Independiente Medellín assist chart with 4.
More detail - goals home and away, expected goals and first-to-score rates - is in the tables above.
Head-to-head: Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín
Atlético Nacional and Independiente Medellín have met 12 times in recent years. The record:
Atlético Nacional wins: 5
Draws: 6
Independiente Medellín wins: 1
Frequently asked questions about Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín
When is Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín?
The match will be played on 25/10/2026 (Sunday) at 23:10.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Nacional and Independiente Medellín?
Across their last 12 meetings the record is 5-6-1 (Atlético Nacional wins – draws – Independiente Medellín wins).
What was the last match between Atlético Nacional and Independiente Medellín?
The two sides last met on 15/10/2026, and the result was Atlético Nacional 3 vs 2 Independiente Medellín. Full details: Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín, 15/10/2026.
Who is the favorite in Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín?
Atlético Nacional is the favorite at odds of 1.852, an implied probability of about 54.00%. Atlético Nacional is priced at 1.852, the draw at 8.5 and Independiente Medellín at 5.01.
Where can I find a Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín prediction?
You can find our full prediction, including in-depth analysis on the Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín prediction page.
Where can I find Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín stats?
All key statistics for Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín are on this page, updated in real time.
Where can I watch Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín?
Live streaming information is available on our Atlético Nacional vs Independiente Medellín stream page.