Morelia vs Leones Negros prediction

Mexico - Liga de Expansão MX

v.s

12 Nov 2026 21:00

Over 2.5 Goals

Market: Over 2.5 Goals · @ 1.65

1.65

Confidence

56%

Secondary prediction

Home Win

50%

Last updated: 10-11-2026

Morelia and Leones Negros face each other on Wednesday 11.11.2026, at 00:00 (UK Time), in a Liga de Expansão MX 2026/27 match. The game will take place at Morelia's home ground, the .

Our team of analysts has crafted predictions for the clash between Morelia and Leones Negros, grounded in an in-depth statistical analysis of both sides. We aim to empower bettors with reliable insights, delivering today’s top free betting tip to support smarter, more profitable choices.

Morelia preview

Morelia heads into the match with the following record in the Liga de Expansão MX: in 17 matches, Morelia secured 10 victories, 2 draws, and 5 losses, maintaining an average of 1.88 points per game.

Taking a broader look at Morelia's 2026/27 season, the team has achieved a total of 24 victories so far.

Morelia has been effective in the offence, scoring a total of 74 goals, of which 30 were scored in the Liga de Expansão MX, resulting in an average of 1.76 goals per game.

Individually, the standout performer is Ruben Del Campo, who has found the back of the net 12 times. However, he is not alone in driving the offence. Diego de Jesús Aguilar Millán has taken on the role of the team's main playmaker, leading with 7 assists.

On the defensive side, Morelia has conceded 21 goals in the Liga de Expansão MX (an average of 1.24 per game) and 60 goals throughout the entire season, with an average of 1.18 per match in the 2026/27 campaign.

Leones Negros preview

Leones Negros comes into the game with 17 matches played so far in the Liga de Expansão MX. They have secured 10 victories, 3 draws, and 4 losses, maintaining an average of 1.94 points per game in the competition.

Across all competitions in the 2026/27 season, the team has recorded 19 wins, 11 draws, and 17 losses.

Leones Negros's attack has been highly effective, scoring 72 goals during this period. Of that total, 36 were netted in the Liga de Expansão MX, with an average of 2.12 goals per game. The overall season average is 1.53.

Leones Negros's offensive system is led by Alejandro de Jesús Bravo Santiago, the team's top scorer this season. The mexican midfielder has found the back of the net 9 times. He is supported by the team's best assist provider, Óscar Gil Vázquez. The forward has contributed with 5 assists.

On the defensive side, the team has conceded 22 goals with an average of 1.29 per game in the championship. For the whole season, the team conceded 68 goals in 47 matches, averaging 1.45 per match.

Head to head: Morelia vs Leones Negros

Review the head-to-head record between the teams, featuring key data to support your match prediction.

Morelia

Home

WWLWL
VS

Leones Negros

Away

WLWWL

Points & Results

  • 17
    Played
    17
  • 10
    Wins
    10
  • 2
    Draws
    3
  • 5
    Losses
    4
  • 1.88
    PPG
    1.94
  • 59%
    Wins
    59%
  • 53%
    First to Score
    76%

Goals Scored & Conceded

  • 30
    Goals Scored
    36
  • 1.76
    Scored/game
    2.12
  • 21
    Goals Conceded
    22
  • 1.24
    Conceded/game
    1.29
  • 1.89
    xG
    1.73
  • 1.25
    xGA
    1.61

Corners

  • 184
    Total Corners
    152
  • 121
    Corners For
    93
  • 63
    Corners Against
    59
  • 7.56
    Corners For/game
    5.47
  • 3.94
    Corners Against/game
    3.47

Trends

  • 76%
    Both Score
    71%
  • 18%
    Clean Sheet
    18%
  • 6%
    Failed to Score
    12%

Access all match stats for Morelia vs Leones Negros

Where to watch Morelia vs Leones Negros live?

Check out the live stream of Morelia vs Leones Negros below and follow the match in real time.

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Likely Scores

#ScoreProbability%
11 - 1
11.78%
22 - 1
8.61%
31 - 2
8.13%
42 - 2
6.54%
51 - 0
5.98%
62 - 0
5.67%
70 - 1
5.59%
80 - 0
5.45%
90 - 2
5.06%
103 - 1
4.62%
111 - 3
4.12%
123 - 2
3.51%
Published: 9 Nov 2026
Updated: 9 Nov 2026