Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli

Qatar - Stars League

v.s

22 Oct 2026 12:45

Al Ahli are creating the better shooting profile with average 6.33 overall shots and 2.09 xG. Their season scoring average is 1.67 goals per game, so the next major chance is likely to come from their side.

Result Probability

43%
Al-Gharafa to win
23%
Draw
34%
Al Ahli to win
Al-Gharafa
5
wins
3
draws
Al Ahli
4
wins
58%
BTTS
7/12
92%
OVER 0.5
11/12
75%
OVER 1.5
9/12
58%
OVER 2.5
7/12

Key Statistics

  • Avg. Goals

    Below average

    2.63

    League 3.42

  • Over 2.5 Goals

    Above average

    75%

    League 64%

  • Both Teams Score

    Below average

    50%

    League 56%

  • Cards

    Below average

    3.75

    League 4.08

  • Corners

    Above average

    11.75

    League 10.06

Corner volume is the clearest signal here. Al-Gharafa average 8.75 corners in this split, compared with the league benchmark of 10.06, which points to sustained attacking territory.

Over / Under

  • 0.5

    1+ gol

    OVER
    83%
    UNDER
    17%
  • 1.5

    2+ gol

    OVER
    75%
    UNDER
    25%
  • 2.5

    3+ gol

    OVER
    75%
    UNDER
    25%
  • 3.5

    4+ gol

    OVER
    50%
    UNDER
    50%

The recent scoring sample is stronger for Over 0.5 at 83% across the last 10 relevant matches. That makes the goal market a top pick for this match.

Team Performance

Al-Gharafa

Home

DLDLL
VS

Al Ahli

Away

LWLWD

Points & Results

  • 0.83
    PPG
    1.17
  • 17%
    Wins
    33%
  • 33%
    First to Score
    50%

Goals Scored & Conceded

  • 1.00
    Scored/game
    1.67
  • 1.83
    Conceded/game
    2.00
  • 1.84
    xG
    2.09
  • 1.52
    xGA
    1.79

Trends

  • 67%
    Both Score
    33%
  • 33%
    Clean Sheet
    33%

Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli: Statistics and Analysis - Stars League 2026/2027

On this page you can check all the key statistics for Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli - goals, corners, form, trends, head-to-head record and more.

This Stars League match will be played on 22/10/2026 (Thursday) at 17:45.

The venue is Thani Bin Jassim Stadium.

The fixture is part of game week 7th of the Stars League season. Al-Gharafa currently sits in position 10th of the Stars League table. Al Ahli occupies position 7th.

Stat Probabilities for Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli

Our projection system combines both teams' numbers into percentage chances for the key statistical markets in this match:

Both teams to score: our projection puts the chance of both teams scoring in Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli at 50%.

Over 2.5 goals: the combined stats for Al-Gharafa and Al Ahli point to a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals in this match.

Al Ahli over 1.5 goals conceded: based on their record, there is a 100% chance of Al Ahli conceding 2 or more goals.

For our tips built on these numbers, see the Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli prediction page.

Who is the favorite in Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli?

According to the latest match odds, Al-Gharafa is the favorite at 2.15 an implied probability of about 46.51%. The full 1X2 market has Al-Gharafa at 2.15, the draw at 4.444, and Al Ahli at 3.636.

Overall performance in the Stars League

Al-Gharafa's record so far reads 1W-2D-3L from 6 played a win rate of 17% at 0.83 points per game.

Al Ahli stands at 2W-1D-3L from 6 played, winning 33% of their matches at 1.17 points per game.

In their last five, Al-Gharafa has gone 0W-2D-3L, averaging 0.4 points per game.

Al Ahli's last five read 2W-1D-2L, at 1.4 points per game.

At home, Al-Gharafa has a 25% win rate (1W-2D-1L from 4 played).

On the road, Al Ahli has won 0% of their matches (0W-0D-2L from 2 played).

Goal statistics for Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli

In attack, Al-Gharafa averages 1 goals scored per game in the Stars League (6 in total), while conceding 1.83 per game (11 in total).

Al Ahli averages 1.67 goals scored per game (10 in total) and 2 conceded per game (12 in total).

Al-Gharafa's top scorer this season is Yacine Brahimi, with 8 goals.

For Al Ahli, Michel Vlap leads the scoring charts with 9 goals this season.

Al-Gharafa's main creator is Yacine Brahimi, with 11 assists.

Michel Vlap tops the Al Ahli assist chart with 5.

More detail - goals home and away, expected goals and first-to-score rates - is in the tables above.

Head-to-head: Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli

Al-Gharafa and Al Ahli have met 12 times in recent years. The record:

  • Al-Gharafa wins: 5

  • Draws: 3

  • Al Ahli wins: 4

Frequently asked questions about Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli

When is Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli?

The match will be played on 22/10/2026 (Thursday) at 17:45.

What is the head-to-head record between Al-Gharafa and Al Ahli?

Across their last 12 meetings the record is 5-3-4 (Al-Gharafa wins – draws – Al Ahli wins).

What was the last match between Al-Gharafa and Al Ahli?

The two sides last met on 18/03/2026, and the result was Al-Gharafa 1 vs 4 Al Ahli. Full details: Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli, 18/03/2026.

Who is the favorite in Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli?

Al-Gharafa is the favorite at odds of 2.15, an implied probability of about 46.51%. Al-Gharafa is priced at 2.15, the draw at 4.444 and Al Ahli at 3.636.

Where can I find a Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli prediction?

You can find our full prediction, including in-depth analysis on the Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli prediction page.

Where can I find Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli stats?

All key statistics for Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli are on this page, updated in real time.

Where can I watch Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli?

Live streaming information is available on our Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli stream page.