The Halo Effect in Sports Betting

Most bettors bet intuitively. They depend on what they know and feel about a team or player to make an assessment on the spot of their success probability. Even though intuition is reliable at immediately working out if someone is mad at you, it’s not ideal for probability judgements. The reason is because of the Halo Effect. Let’s find out more about the role of the Halo Effect and its impact on how we make our betting decisions.

Introduction to the Halo Effect

First, let’s look at two people and their different characteristics. Which one do you prefer?

For most people, these descriptions show that Nick is more favourable than Sam. It’s a strange assessment as their listed characteristics are no different and only presented in reverse.

Instead of acknowledging that the order of the data is the only difference, our mind’s lazy side (also referred to as system 1) finds consistency in evaluation to quickly make a coherent narrative.

The starting positive trait where Nick is smart distracts us to look at Nick’s latter traits to support this view while vice-versa with Sam being envious. This is what’s considered the Halo Effect.

“It's not hard to see how biased betting judgements are by looking at the order in which information is acquired."

You might be wondering, what's this got to do with sports betting? Let's say we change the example above with football teams or tennis players and replace the character descriptions with results or performances. You'll then notice how betting judgement is easily biased just by order of information you acquire along with the significance of specific performances.

This is the type of bias that isn't isolated. Many are also easily affected by the Availability Heuristic that led us to places with bigger disproportional significance on events or ideas that are easier to recall. This Availability is mainly linked to how we strongly believe in our emotional response to matches or events, which is greater when they create more lasting impressions. This includes high-scoring games, five-set classics and more.

Therefore, with your new knowledge of the Halo Effect and Availability Heuristic, let's find out how they apply in sports betting.

What is the Halo Effect and its Bias?

You can easily notice the Halo Effect bias when it applies to individuals. It specifically appears when people form a judgement based on personal experiences and observations, just like how everyone interprets the world differently through their individual lenses.

Let's return to the worldly view – the Halo Effect crawls its way onto bettors who are first active in the betting space and, secondly, like to experiment between teams and players. If you're the kind of bettor who likes to bet on the same team or player every time, this might not apply to you, even though you might need to revamp your strategy.

The Halo effect applies to people who let their personal goals and success overrule any logic when placing their bets. For example, a bettor might have a lower success rate with Arsenal, but because they're looking for the biggest bet of their life with the team, they'll continue betting on them, hoping they'll eventually hit that jackpot that will change their lives.

Similarly, a bettor might be tempted to bet on Manchester City for the first time due to their recent title in the Premier League. Therefore, they expect them to continue winning regardless of odds, circumstances, opponent, or other factors. Indeed, experienced or more serious bettors won't have these problems as bettors who don't follow recent trends and like to casually bet are those with these habits.

The Halo Effect in Football

The admiration of Brazil's national football team has set them apart from other national teams over the years. This applies to the betting public's minds. Indeed, the Brazilian national team (Canarinha) have won more World Cup titles than other nations. However, their victories came during two different periods, which are 1958-1970 and 1994-2002, but they didn't reach the final in all four tournaments after that.

Their most successful times started with the golden age of Pele, Rivelino, Carlos Alberto and others. This has created the 'Halo' that biased the image of all Brazilian teams, which is confirmed by availability bias with the frequently aired glorious goals, especially during the Mexican tournament in 1970.

The younger generation may be unfamiliar with football over the past forty years. Still, the media seem to bolster the idea (confirmation bias) by emphasizing the image that all Brazilian players are top-tier footballers. This builds a consistent narrative to this day that "Brazil has been producing many of the world's best players, which means all Brazilian footballers are skilful."

However, the events of 2014, where Brazil was eliminated by 7-1 by Germany, may have been enough to erase this Halo or at least lighten it a little.

The Halo effect may also cause overloads of credits given to popular ex-football players who transition into management. There is no fact or statistical proof that being good on the field means you'll be a good manager. For example, Mark Hughes played exceptionally well during his time at Manchester United and Chelsea, and unfortunately, everyone expected him to have the same level of achievement when he moved into management.

The Halo created by exploits has caused many fans, clubs and bettors to expect more than what's realistic from these individuals when choosing the team. This topic gained more exposure from the book Moneyball and the film with the same title starring Brad Pitt.

Is it Possible to Avoid the Halo Effect?

It's possible and relatively simple to avoid the Halo Effect bias, but still tricky to handle at times. The first step is to bet on teams, players or events you're familiar with. Having a good knowledge of what's happening in the sports you're betting on may help you avoid narratives and exposure bias before you start betting.

Also, it's best to diversify your bets and have experience with various teams and players. Don't limit yourself to relying on betting only on a small group of players or teams. We're not saying that you shouldn't have favourites, but you shouldn't expect them to deliver every time. This also applies to the different betting markets available. Even though you may stick to a betting method (live, prop, handicap, etc.) that has worked for you, you shouldn't rely on a team or player to carry your bets. You can begin with low-value risks so you'll be more comfortable with something "different.'' Once you've gained enough experience, try expanding your investment.

Another effective way to avoid the halo effect is simply by taking a short break from betting every once in a while. Perhaps you've been following a particular League this season from start to finish. And once it's done, you should take a break off betting and come back once another major league starts.

How Will the Halo Effect Likely Show Up?

As previously mentioned, the Halo Effect mostly shows up when someone likes to place their bets on their favourite teams or players. The rule of thumb is that you should avoid betting on entities you support unless you've proven that you can overcome personal bias and their affinity.

This can help newer bettors who think they must bet on their favourite team or athlete. They'll find out sooner or later that this habit will eventually lead them down a slippery slope.

How to Find Out if You're a Victim of the Halo Effect?

Many bettors are impulsive, and even though some traits have pros and cons, it's usually dominantly negative. Track your bets is an excellent way to tell if you're a live victim of the Halo effect or other biases that lead to poor decision-making. To do this, try taking a few hours or even days off and revisit and evaluate their probability of succeeding.

You can try looking at odds as they're released (usually in the middle of the night), go to sleep and check them again in the morning. Or you can plan out weekend bets on Monday before checking them back on Friday.

Conclusion of the Halo Effect in Sports Betting

Even though we've advised you to keep track of the recent news and updates on the sports you're betting on, we understand that it's impossible to keep up with all the news. Knowledge is what empowers profitable bettors to stay ahead of the game, so remember to stay as informed as possible. If you don't have the time to check all the action, then you can do due diligence and check out the crucial statistics, important events, outside factors and growing trends before plunging back and risking your money. Visit APWin, where you can find all this information in one place.

We are all imperfect beings and it's impossible to completely avoid these biases altogether. However, the information we've given above and relying on how you use this information, trends, stats and outcomes may help you minimize the Halo effect's impact.

The Halo Effect in Sports Betting

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