Venados vs Morelia prediction
Mexico - Liga de Expansão MX
Under 4.5 Goals
Market: Under 4.5 Goals · @ 1.16
Confidence
78%
Last updated: 04-11-2026
Venados and Morelia face each other on Wednesday 11.04.2026, at 23:00 (UK Time), in a Liga de Expansão MX 2026/27 match. The game will take place at Venados's home ground, the .
Our team of analysts has crafted predictions for the clash between Venados and Morelia, grounded in an in-depth statistical analysis of both sides. We aim to empower bettors with reliable insights, delivering today’s top free betting tip to support smarter, more profitable choices.
Venados preview
Venados heads into the match with the following record in the Liga de Expansão MX: in 15 matches, Venados secured 7 victories, 4 draws, and 4 losses, maintaining an average of 1.67 points per game.
Taking a broader look at Venados's 2026/27 season, the team has achieved a total of 16 victories so far.
Venados has been effective in the offence, scoring a total of 85 goals, of which 31 were scored in the Liga de Expansão MX, resulting in an average of 2.07 goals per game.
Individually, the standout performer is Juan José Calero Sierra, who has found the back of the net 22 times. However, he is not alone in driving the offence. Wiliam Oswaldo Guzmán Aguilar has taken on the role of the team's main playmaker, leading with 8 assists.
On the defensive side, Venados has conceded 25 goals in the Liga de Expansão MX (an average of 1.67 per game) and 80 goals throughout the entire season, with an average of 1.86 per match in the 2026/27 campaign.
- 31/10/2026Correcaminos UATVenadosD0031/10/2026Ascenso MXCorrecaminos UAT
v.s
Venados0 - 0D - 24/10/2026VenadosDurangoW3224/10/2026Ascenso MXVenados
v.s
Durango3 - 2W - 18/10/2026CancúnVenadosD1118/10/2026Ascenso MXCancún
v.s
Venados1 - 1D - 10/10/2026VenadosLeones NegrosD1110/10/2026Ascenso MXVenados
v.s
Leones Negros1 - 1D - 03/10/2026CA La PazVenadosW1203/10/2026Ascenso MXCA La Paz
v.s
Venados1 - 2W
Morelia preview
Morelia comes into the game with 15 matches played so far in the Liga de Expansão MX. They have secured 8 victories, 2 draws, and 5 losses, maintaining an average of 1.73 points per game in the competition.
Across all competitions in the 2026/27 season, the team has recorded 22 wins, 11 draws, and 16 losses.
Morelia's attack has been highly effective, scoring 70 goals during this period. Of that total, 26 were netted in the Liga de Expansão MX, with an average of 1.73 goals per game. The overall season average is 1.43.
Morelia's offensive system is led by Ruben Del Campo, the team's top scorer this season. The swiss forward has found the back of the net 12 times. He is supported by the team's best assist provider, Brian Eduardo Figueroa Flores. The midfielder has contributed with 6 assists.
On the defensive side, the team has conceded 19 goals with an average of 1.27 per game in the championship. For the whole season, the team conceded 58 goals in 49 matches, averaging 1.18 per match.
- 01/11/2026DurangoMoreliaL3101/11/2026Ascenso MXDurango
v.s
Morelia3 - 1L - 25/10/2026TapatíoMoreliaW1225/10/2026Ascenso MXTapatío
v.s
Morelia1 - 2W - 18/10/2026MoreliaJaiba BravaL1218/10/2026Ascenso MXMorelia
v.s
Jaiba Brava1 - 2L - 10/10/2026TepatitlánMoreliaD1110/10/2026Ascenso MXTepatitlán
v.s
Morelia1 - 1D - 04/10/2026MoreliaTlaxcalaD1104/10/2026Ascenso MXMorelia
v.s
Tlaxcala1 - 1D
Head to head: Venados vs Morelia
Review the head-to-head record between the teams, featuring key data to support your match prediction.
Venados
Home
Morelia
Away
Points & Results
- PPG1.671.73
- 47%Wins53%
- 60%First to Score53%
Goals Scored & Conceded
- Scored/game2.071.73
- Conceded/game1.671.27
- xG1.891.87
- xGA1.551.25
Trends
- 80%Both Score73%
- 20%Clean Sheet20%
- 7%Failed to Score7%
Access all match stats for Venados vs Morelia
Where to watch Venados vs Morelia live?
Check out the live stream of Venados vs Morelia below and follow the match in real time.
Watch this match
Venados vs Morelia
Likely Scores
| # | Score | Probability | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 - 1 | 11.65% | |
| 2 | 1 - 2 | 8.43% | |
| 3 | 2 - 1 | 8.30% | |
| 4 | 2 - 2 | 6.61% | |
| 5 | 0 - 1 | 5.69% | |
| 6 | 1 - 0 | 5.59% | |
| 7 | 0 - 2 | 5.38% | |
| 8 | 0 - 0 | 5.30% | |
| 9 | 2 - 0 | 5.21% | |
| 10 | 1 - 3 | 4.47% | |
| 11 | 3 - 1 | 4.34% | |
| 12 | 2 - 3 | 3.51% |