Venados vs Morelia prediction

Mexico - Liga de Expansão MX

v.s

04 Nov 2026 18:00

Under 4.5 Goals

Market: Under 4.5 Goals · @ 1.16

1.16

Confidence

78%

Last updated: 04-11-2026

Venados and Morelia face each other on Wednesday 11.04.2026, at 23:00 (UK Time), in a Liga de Expansão MX 2026/27 match. The game will take place at Venados's home ground, the .

Our team of analysts has crafted predictions for the clash between Venados and Morelia, grounded in an in-depth statistical analysis of both sides. We aim to empower bettors with reliable insights, delivering today’s top free betting tip to support smarter, more profitable choices.

Venados preview

Venados heads into the match with the following record in the Liga de Expansão MX: in 15 matches, Venados secured 7 victories, 4 draws, and 4 losses, maintaining an average of 1.67 points per game.

Taking a broader look at Venados's 2026/27 season, the team has achieved a total of 16 victories so far.

Venados has been effective in the offence, scoring a total of 85 goals, of which 31 were scored in the Liga de Expansão MX, resulting in an average of 2.07 goals per game.

Individually, the standout performer is Juan José Calero Sierra, who has found the back of the net 22 times. However, he is not alone in driving the offence. Wiliam Oswaldo Guzmán Aguilar has taken on the role of the team's main playmaker, leading with 8 assists.

On the defensive side, Venados has conceded 25 goals in the Liga de Expansão MX (an average of 1.67 per game) and 80 goals throughout the entire season, with an average of 1.86 per match in the 2026/27 campaign.

Morelia preview

Morelia comes into the game with 15 matches played so far in the Liga de Expansão MX. They have secured 8 victories, 2 draws, and 5 losses, maintaining an average of 1.73 points per game in the competition.

Across all competitions in the 2026/27 season, the team has recorded 22 wins, 11 draws, and 16 losses.

Morelia's attack has been highly effective, scoring 70 goals during this period. Of that total, 26 were netted in the Liga de Expansão MX, with an average of 1.73 goals per game. The overall season average is 1.43.

Morelia's offensive system is led by Ruben Del Campo, the team's top scorer this season. The swiss forward has found the back of the net 12 times. He is supported by the team's best assist provider, Brian Eduardo Figueroa Flores. The midfielder has contributed with 6 assists.

On the defensive side, the team has conceded 19 goals with an average of 1.27 per game in the championship. For the whole season, the team conceded 58 goals in 49 matches, averaging 1.18 per match.

Head to head: Venados vs Morelia

Review the head-to-head record between the teams, featuring key data to support your match prediction.

Venados

Home

DWDDW
VS

Morelia

Away

LWLDD

Points & Results

  • 1.67
    PPG
    1.73
  • 47%
    Wins
    53%
  • 60%
    First to Score
    53%

Goals Scored & Conceded

  • 2.07
    Scored/game
    1.73
  • 1.67
    Conceded/game
    1.27
  • 1.89
    xG
    1.87
  • 1.55
    xGA
    1.25

Trends

  • 80%
    Both Score
    73%
  • 20%
    Clean Sheet
    20%
  • 7%
    Failed to Score
    7%

Access all match stats for Venados vs Morelia

Where to watch Venados vs Morelia live?

Check out the live stream of Venados vs Morelia below and follow the match in real time.

Venados logoVSMorelia logo

Watch this match

Venados vs Morelia

Watch now

Likely Scores

#ScoreProbability%
11 - 1
11.65%
21 - 2
8.43%
32 - 1
8.30%
42 - 2
6.61%
50 - 1
5.69%
61 - 0
5.59%
70 - 2
5.38%
80 - 0
5.30%
92 - 0
5.21%
101 - 3
4.47%
113 - 1
4.34%
122 - 3
3.51%
Published: 3 Nov 2026
Updated: 3 Nov 2026