Toluca and Pachuca face each other on Monday 05.04.2026, at 02:15 (UK Time), in a Liga MX 2025/26 match. The game will take place at Toluca's home ground, the Estadio Nemesio Díez (La Bombonera).
Our team of analysts has crafted predictions for the clash between Deportivo Toluca Fútbol Club S.A. de C.V. and Club de Fútbol Pachuca S.A. de C.V., grounded in an in-depth statistical analysis of both sides. We aim to empower bettors with reliable insights, delivering today’s top free betting tip to support smarter, more profitable choices.
APWin predictions for Toluca vs Pachuca
With odds already defined by leading bookmakers, our specialists have thoroughly reviewed the key match data. Check out our expert prediction below:
Toluca Win
The APWin team has examined the key betting markets and identified the most valuable opportunities.
Toluca preview
Toluca heads into the match with the following record in the Liga MX: in 40 matches, Deportivo Toluca Fútbol Club S.A. de C.V. secured 22 victories, 11 draws, and 7 losses, maintaining an average of 1.93 points per game.
Taking a broader look at The Red Devils's 2025/26 season, the team has achieved a total of 22 victories so far.
Toluca has been effective in the offence, scoring a total of 78 goals, of which 78 were scored in the Liga MX, resulting in an average of 1.95 goals per game.
Individually, the standout performer is José Paulo Bezerra Maciel Júnior, who has found the back of the net 21 times. However, he is not alone in driving the offence. Ernesto Alexis Vega Rojas has taken on the role of the team's main playmaker, leading with 12 assists.
On the defensive side, Toluca has conceded 40 goals in the Liga MX (an average of 1 per game) and 40 goals throughout the entire season, with an average of 1 per match in the 2025/26 campaign.
Pachuca preview
Pachuca comes into the game with 36 matches played so far in the Liga MX. They have secured 16 victories, 8 draws, and 12 losses, maintaining an average of 1.56 points per game in the competition.
Across all competitions in the 2025/26 season, the team has recorded 16 wins, 8 draws, and 12 losses.
Club de Fútbol Pachuca S.A. de C.V.'s attack has been highly effective, scoring 50 goals during this period. Of that total, 50 were netted in the Liga MX, with an average of 1.39 goals per game. The overall season average is 1.39.
The Gophers's offensive system is led by Robert Kenedy Nunes do Nascimento, the team's top scorer this season. The brazilian forward has found the back of the net 8 times. He is supported by the team's best assist provider, Víctor Alfonso Guzmán Guzmán. The defender has contributed with 7 assists.
On the defensive side, the team has conceded 43 goals with an average of 1.19 per game in the championship. For the whole season, the team conceded 43 goals in 36 matches, averaging 1.19 per match.
Head to head: Toluca vs Pachuca
Review the head-to-head record between the teams, featuring key data to support your match prediction.
Toluca
Mexico - Liga MX
| Form | Last 5 | PPG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | W L L D L |
0.8 |
| Home | W D D W W |
2.2 |
| Away | L L L D W |
0.8 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 55% | 65% | 45% |
| Goals | 2.95 | 3.45 | 2.45 |
| Scored | 1.95 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| Conceded | 1 | 1.05 | 0.95 |
| Both Teams to Score | 58% | 75% | 40% |
| Without Conceding | 33% | 25% | 40% |
| Failed To Score | 23% | 5% | 40% |
| 1st to Score | 53% | 65% | 40% |
|
xG
|
1.83 | 2 | 1.63 |
|
xGA
|
1.13 | 1.11 | 1.16 |
Pachuca
Mexico - Liga MX
| Form | Last 5 | PPG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | L L W W W |
1.8 |
| Home | L W D W W |
2 |
| Away | L W W D L |
1.4 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 44% | 56% | 33% |
| Goals | 2.58 | 2.5 | 2.67 |
| Scored | 1.39 | 1.44 | 1.33 |
| Conceded | 1.19 | 1.06 | 1.33 |
| Both Teams to Score | 56% | 50% | 61% |
| Without Conceding | 19% | 22% | 17% |
| Failed To Score | 31% | 33% | 28% |
| 1st to Score | 53% | 44% | 28% |
|
xG
|
1.47 | 1.56 | 1.38 |
|
xGA
|
1.25 | 1.07 | 1.44 |
Access all match stats for Toluca vs Pachuca
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I’m a journalist and content creator with over 7 years of experience in sports betting. At APWin, I live football and betting markets, and outside the screen I’m also a marathon runner always chasing performance.