The kick off for the match between Southampton and Derby County will take place at 15:00 (UK time) - Saturday, 04/11 - at the St. Mary's Stadium. This clash of the 2025/26 EFL Championship looks very promising!
Before placing your bets on this match, check out the full analysis, including predictions for Southampton Football Club Limited vs Derby County (The Rams) Limited. We also highlight the most interesting odds and markets with a high chance of winning. Providing today’s best free tip to help you make informed and profitable betting decisions.
APWin predictions for Southampton vs Derby County
With odds already released by major bookmakers, our experts have crunched the numbers and dissected the key match data. Find our value-packed prediction for this encounter below:
DNB: Southampton Win
After a thorough assessment of the primary betting markets, APWin analysts have identified bets with strong value potential.
Southampton Preview
Southampton has played 40 matches in the EFL Championship so far, with 18 wins, 12 draws, and 10 losses. This results in an average of 1.65 points per match.
In the 2025/26 season, the team has recorded 24 wins, 12 draws, and 11 losses. Southampton's attack has scored 81 goals, 68 of them in the league, which gives an average of 1.7 goals per league match and 1.72 goals per match across the entire season.
Adam Armstrong is the team’s top scorer with 11 goals, while Leonardo Weschenfelder-Scienza leads the team in assists with 8. Defensively, Southampton Football Club Limited has conceded 49 goals in the league (an average of 1.23) and 55 goals throughout the entire season (an average of 1.17 over 47 matches).
Derby County preview
In 41 EFL Championship matches, Derby County has recorded 18 wins, 9 draws, and 14 losses, with an average of 1.54 points per game.
In the 2025/26 season, the team has 18 wins in 44 matches. The team has scored 63 goals, 60 of them in the EFL Championship (an average of 1.46 goals per match), with Carlton Morris being the team's top scorer with 11 goals and Joe Ward providing 7 assists.
Defensively, The Rams has conceded 51 goals in the league and 57 in the 2025/26 season overall, resulting in an average of 1.3 goals conceded per match.
Head to head: Southampton vs Derby County
Review the head-to-head record between the teams, featuring key data to support your match prediction.
Southampton
England - Championship
| Form | Last 5 | PPG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | W W W W W |
3 |
| Home | W W W W D |
2.6 |
| Away | W W D W W |
2.6 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 45% | 53% | 38% |
| Goals | 2.93 | 2.26 | 3.52 |
| Scored | 1.7 | 1.53 | 1.86 |
| Conceded | 1.23 | 0.74 | 1.67 |
| Both Teams to Score | 70% | 47% | 90% |
| Without Conceding | 25% | 47% | 5% |
| Failed To Score | 13% | 21% | 5% |
| 1st to Score | 58% | 58% | 57% |
|
xG
|
1.63 | 1.77 | 1.5 |
|
xGA
|
1.35 | 1.18 | 1.51 |
Derby County
England - Championship
| Form | Last 5 | PPG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | W L W W L |
1.8 |
| Home | W W W W W |
3 |
| Away | L W L L L |
0.6 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 44% | 43% | 45% |
| Goals | 2.71 | 2.57 | 2.85 |
| Scored | 1.46 | 1.38 | 1.55 |
| Conceded | 1.24 | 1.19 | 1.3 |
| Both Teams to Score | 63% | 67% | 60% |
| Without Conceding | 27% | 29% | 25% |
| Failed To Score | 10% | 5% | 15% |
| 1st to Score | 58% | 48% | 60% |
|
xG
|
1.23 | 1.33 | 1.12 |
|
xGA
|
1.42 | 1.23 | 1.62 |
Access all match stats for Southampton vs Derby County
Where to watch Southampton Football Club Limited vs The Rams live?
Check out the live stream of Southampton vs Derby County below and follow the match in real time.
Sports betting analyst with over 15 years of experience. At APWin, he writes football predictions, reviews bookmakers and explains the reasoning behind every bet.