Southampton and Derby County face each other on Saturday 04.11.2026, at 15:00 (UK Time), in a EFL Championship 2025/26 match. The game will take place at Southampton's home ground, the St. Mary's Stadium.
Our team of analysts has crafted predictions for the clash between Southampton Football Club Limited and Derby County (The Rams) Limited, grounded in an in-depth statistical analysis of both sides. We aim to empower bettors with reliable insights, delivering today’s top free betting tip to support smarter, more profitable choices.
APWin predictions for Southampton vs Derby County
With odds already defined by leading bookmakers, our specialists have thoroughly reviewed the key match data. Check out our expert prediction below:
Southampton Win
The APWin team has examined the key betting markets and identified the most valuable opportunities.
Southampton preview
Southampton heads into the match with the following record in the EFL Championship: in 40 matches, Southampton Football Club Limited secured 18 victories, 12 draws, and 10 losses, maintaining an average of 1.65 points per game.
Taking a broader look at Southampton Football Club Limited's 2025/26 season, the team has achieved a total of 24 victories so far.
Southampton has been effective in the offence, scoring a total of 81 goals, of which 68 were scored in the EFL Championship, resulting in an average of 1.7 goals per game.
Individually, the standout performer is Adam Armstrong, who has found the back of the net 11 times. However, he is not alone in driving the offence. Leonardo Weschenfelder-Scienza has taken on the role of the team's main playmaker, leading with 8 assists.
On the defensive side, Southampton has conceded 49 goals in the EFL Championship (an average of 1.23 per game) and 55 goals throughout the entire season, with an average of 1.17 per match in the 2025/26 campaign.
Derby County preview
Derby County comes into the game with 41 matches played so far in the EFL Championship. They have secured 18 victories, 9 draws, and 14 losses, maintaining an average of 1.54 points per game in the competition.
Across all competitions in the 2025/26 season, the team has recorded 18 wins, 10 draws, and 16 losses.
Derby County (The Rams) Limited's attack has been highly effective, scoring 63 goals during this period. Of that total, 60 were netted in the EFL Championship, with an average of 1.46 goals per game. The overall season average is 1.43.
The Rams's offensive system is led by Carlton Morris, the team's top scorer this season. The english forward has found the back of the net 11 times. He is supported by the team's best assist provider, Joe Ward. The forward has contributed with 7 assists.
On the defensive side, the team has conceded 51 goals with an average of 1.24 per game in the championship. For the whole season, the team conceded 57 goals in 44 matches, averaging 1.3 per match.
Head to head: Southampton vs Derby County
Review the head-to-head record between the teams, featuring key data to support your match prediction.
Southampton
England - Championship
| Form | Last 5 | PPG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | W W W W W |
3 |
| Home | W W W W D |
2.6 |
| Away | W W D W W |
2.6 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 45% | 53% | 38% |
| Goals | 2.93 | 2.26 | 3.52 |
| Scored | 1.7 | 1.53 | 1.86 |
| Conceded | 1.23 | 0.74 | 1.67 |
| Both Teams to Score | 70% | 47% | 90% |
| Without Conceding | 25% | 47% | 5% |
| Failed To Score | 13% | 21% | 5% |
| 1st to Score | 58% | 58% | 57% |
|
xG
|
1.63 | 1.77 | 1.5 |
|
xGA
|
1.35 | 1.18 | 1.51 |
Derby County
England - Championship
| Form | Last 5 | PPG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | W L W W L |
1.8 |
| Home | W W W W W |
3 |
| Away | L W L L L |
0.6 |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win % | 44% | 43% | 45% |
| Goals | 2.71 | 2.57 | 2.85 |
| Scored | 1.46 | 1.38 | 1.55 |
| Conceded | 1.24 | 1.19 | 1.3 |
| Both Teams to Score | 63% | 67% | 60% |
| Without Conceding | 27% | 29% | 25% |
| Failed To Score | 10% | 5% | 15% |
| 1st to Score | 58% | 48% | 60% |
|
xG
|
1.23 | 1.33 | 1.12 |
|
xGA
|
1.42 | 1.23 | 1.62 |
Access all match stats for Southampton vs Derby County
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