Today we are lucky enough to have the betting world at our fingertips. Therefore, betting on the sport you love and taking money home is as easy as touching your phone screen. But have you ever felt like other people are winning more than you, even though you are playing the same bet as them? In addition, they seem to win with larger amounts while you keep on losing with your small bets.
If you've experienced something like this, then it is more likely that those bettors have worked out an effective strategy that helped them gain those big profits, which is why they are more comfortable wagering more significant amounts. This means that you must also find other efficient strategies for your bets. So, consider your next bet before you start placing your money on a bookmaker. You need to calculate probabilities and determine which plan is more profitable with the best odds.
How are Football Betting Strategies Different from Regular Betting?
The main difference between a regular bettor and a strategic one is that the strategic bettor consistently follows a set of rules. This doesn't mean that their strategy guarantees 100% profits on every wager, but they should be winning more consistently. At least, that's the logic.
Indeed, you might be thinking that you have followed a set of rules and followed a strategy. Maybe it's just not a good one or doesn't fit your betting style. But don't worry, as we've put together a list of the top 3 betting strategies to make some biggest profits in football betting.
Matched Betting Technique
This betting strategy allows you to monetize the special betting promotions that the bookmaker offers. These promotions usually give you free bets, so instead of focusing on a team that is likely to win, you can bet on the many possibilities that you think have a chance to win. This means that you can make profits no matter what will happen.
There are two available options in matched betting: one option to bet with real money and the other with a bonus. Additionally, you usually need to wager on a small amount to gain the free bets.
So, to get more money. You'll need to invest your time in finding the bookmakers with the biggest welcoming bonuses. The best part of this strategy is that there are no deposit incentives or only tiny deposits, even though it is rare in betting sites.
You can note the following offers during the process of finding a potential bookmaker:
- Deposit bonus
- Free bet returns
- Non-refundable free bets
- No risk betting
Pro tip: For a guaranteed maximum profit, it is possible to use two different free betting offers from two other bookmakers and bet them together on the opposite results.
Arbitrage Betting
Every dealer will have different calculations and methods used to set their odds on every match. This is why this tactic focuses on finding and exploiting the odds of betting sites against each other.
For example, if the odds of Real Madrid winning at bookmaker A are 1,5 while at bookmaker B is 3.5. This means that to get $100, the number you bet in bookmaker A is $66.66, while at bookmaker B, you only bet $28.57.
Note that the odds of the bookmakers are usually not much different and that you'll need to find out the various odds between the betting sites. Even though the arbitrage betting strategy may need a lot of time and sometimes give the least profits, it is still a fun and enjoyable way to find out more about the different odds in different bookmakers.
Kelly Criterion
The Kelly Criterion is derived from making profits in the financial world and is known as the best betting strategy in football. This strategy dated back decades ago and was mainly used in stock market trading, which is also applicable in football betting.
Before we explain how it works, this strategy works best if you know what you're betting on, so you must have researched your bet, as this strategy will look at the detailed probability of winning. The Kelly Criterion tactic helps to estimate the money at risk compared to the amount of money you have. If you want to use this tactic effectively, you must consider the football team’s expected winning chances and ensure that you place a higher wagering amount with a higher chance of winning. Also, a lower amount with a lower probability of winning. This is the primary purpose of this strategy.
Once you have a target, you'll need to do some calculations and apply the formula:
(bp-q)/b=f
(b) stands for the odds. It's the multiple of the initial bet that you can have if you win. A decimal number calculates it. For example, if you choose to wager $20, you can win $100, including the stake, and your (b) will be 5.
(p) is the probability of winning your bet. For example, if you bet on a 60% chance of winning, the total winning probability is 0.60.
(q) is the chance of losing your bet. Let's take it from the previous example, you can bet with a 60% chance of winning, which means the possibility of losing is 40%. Therefore, the overall likelihood of losing is 0.40.
(f) stands for the final value. If the (f) shows a positive number, then the game is worth betting for. However, if it is a negative number, then forget this bet and look for another match for betting.
Now, let's see the general example of this formula. Let's say you've bet on the Liverpool team with the odds of 5.00 with the winning probability of 60% and the loss probability is 40%. This gives the formula of:
f = ((5 x 0.6 – 0.4) / 5 = 0.52 =52%
This result shows that you can wager with a maximum of 52% of your bankroll on this bet. Keep in mind that you should always bet on positive values with this strategy and we never recommend betting on anything more than 3% of your bankroll.
These are the top 3 strategies in football betting to get you a better chance of success. Besides choosing the correct betting strategies, other factors play a role in the success of a bet. Put some time into researching and developing these strategies and pick the right one that suits your betting style. Or check our football betting guidelines for insightful tips.
