Football betting involves not only luck, but critical thinking, too, and knowing when to apply which strategy can be the difference between a victory and a loss. You’ll lose a lot of bets if you start without a clear plan.
Whether you're new to soccer betting or have been doing it for years, this guide will help you reduce your losses and make smarter decisions.
It is vital to accept that you cannot maintain a 100% win record in football betting, but with the right guidance, you can be up there with the best. We’ve put this section together through careful research, as part of the APWin Academy, to help you get the best out of your betting experience.
Bankroll Management
Learning how to handle your bankroll is one of the foundations of a successful online betting campaign. As a strategy, you must set aside a portion of your total amount to facilitate betting and manage it to extend playtime and minimise losses.
Set a bet limit and stick to it. Do not chase losses under any circumstances. Also, it can be tempting to take on more challenges when you are on a hot streak, but resist it. Track your performance and spending; make necessary adjustments, if needed. Feel free to use the cashout option if you believe a certain bet will not go your way.
Advantages:
Helps with discipline.
Minimises losses.
Extends playtime, giving you the chance to learn and improve.
Betting against Common Trends
Every soccer betting market is packed with popular opinions that most bettors like you will follow instead of going against. Understand that public betting has the potential to distort odds. As a result, it creates value for contradictory bets.
Say, there is a football match between Chelsea and West Ham. Chelsea, being the superior team historically, will get the majority backing to squash West Ham. But if recent history leans towards West Ham coming out on top, then betting on it makes sense.
Advantages:
Yields superior returns on underdog bets.
Allows you to exploit fluctuations in odds.
Flat Betting Strategy
Flat betting is a strategy that requires you to wager the same amount in every round, regardless of the bet history. It does not matter whether you win consecutive rounds or lose a string of bets; you do not alter your bet amount in this strategy. It is a low-risk scheme that supports bankroll management. The technique may feel restrictive when you are on a winning streak, but the benefits outweigh the limitations.
Advantages:
Keeps decision-making simple by eliminating the role of emotions.
Helps maintain your bankroll when you are on a losing streak.
Easy to track and assess results.
Hedging
When you hedge bets, you place extra bets to lock in your profits or reduce risk. It is a strategy most commonly used in live betting or in circumstances where bets change.
You start by placing a standard bet on the desired outcome. If the odds change or the game dynamic alters in any way, you place a subsequent bet on the opposing outcome. This way, you can keep your losses to a minimum. It requires you to think on your feet while having market knowledge beforehand.
Advantages:
Minimises risks and guarantees situational profits.
Best results are achieved when used in volatile markets.
Value Bets
Value betting requires you to discover betting markets where odds offered by the bookmakers are higher than the outcome’s actual probability. The strategy gives you an advantage over the house.
You must also know the mathematical formula to get the most out of this betting strategy. For decimal odds, implied probability = (1 / odds) * 100. For odds of 2.00, 50% is the implied probability.
For example, if a bookmaker offers the odds of 2.50 for a team’s victory (40% implied probability), but your research shows a 50% chance, you must consider it as a value bet because 50% > 40%.
Advantages:
You can apply the formula to determine odds for sports markets, casinos, or other markets.
In the long run, it gives players a mathematical edge over bookmakers.
Arbitrage
Arbitrage betting can be a risk-free strategy, which allows you to bet on all possible outcomes of a game across different bookmakers. It guarantees profit irrespective of the result. So, the combined implied probabilities of all outcomes will be less than 100%.
For instance, if you bet on a football match where the first bookmaker has an implied probability of 47.62% for Manchester City and the second bookmaker has 48.78% for Crystal Palace. The total implied probability is 96.4%, creating an arbitrage opportunity.
Advantages:
Carries low risk when compared to other betting strategies.
Guaranteed profit, if executed properly.
Avoid Chasing Losses
Chasing losses requires you to increase your bets in order to cover previous losses. This defies the merit set by bankroll management and often leads to reckless decision-making.
Ensure that you take losses within your stride and stick to your bankroll management practices. When on a losing streak, take a break and reassess your betting strategy. Read your losses to determine faulty betting patterns instead of betting more.
Matched Betting
When done well, matched betting is virtually risk-free. The strategy allows you to capitalise on bookmaker promotions such as free bets and other similar bonuses.
By using a combination of bookmaker and exchange accounts, you can virtually guarantee yourself a profit after betting on all possible outcomes of an event.
Advantages:
Matched betting is accepted across all sports betting markets.
Guarantees bonuses via free bets and bonuses.
Kelly Criterion
If you are someone with strong analytical skills and are comfortable taking calculated risks, the Kelly Criterion strategy can help. It uses a mathematical equation aimed at optimising the bet size on the odds offered by the bookmaker and your perceived odds. The strategy also facilitates maximising bankroll while minimising losses.
The formula is: f = (bp - q) / b, where
f is a fraction of the bankroll to bet
b is decimal odds - 1
P is the estimated probability of winning
q is 1-p (probability of losing)
For example, if you bet on a football match where Manchester City has odds of 2.10 to win, and your estimated probability is 50% (0.50).
Here’s how the calculated variable looks:
b = 2.10 - 1 = 1.10
p = 0.50
q = 1 - 0.50 = 0.50
After applying the Kelly Criterion formula, you get:
f = (1.10 x 0.50 - 0.50) / 1.10 = 0.55 - 0.50 / 1.10 = 0.5 / 1.10 = 0.0455
As a result, you should bet 4.55% of your bankroll.
Advantages:
It facilitates long-term bankroll growth.
The strategy is adaptable to a variety of odds and probabilities.
It allows you to balance risk and reward based on your edge.
Halo Effect
The Halo Effect strategy is an interesting concept, as it allows you to exploit other bettors’ overestimation of a team or a player based on their past success or reputation.
To achieve success, you must identify matches where a player or a team is hyped up due to their fame and recent success. Once done, bet against that team or player if your analysis suggests value for the opposition. If your bet wins, you might receive handsome returns for taking a chance on the underdog.
Advantages:
The halo effect strategy facilitates the exploitation of bias created by the public.
It gives you generous returns for backing an underdog.
Confirmation Bias
The Confirmation Bias strategy helps you fight the habit of backing teams or players just because you already believe they’re good, not because the stats say so. It ties in with the Halo Effect, where one good trait makes you ignore everything else.
You must identify such betting markets and bet on the less-favoured teams and players. If the latter’s current form has been superior, you will receive inflated odds, and if the bet wins, you will earn higher returns.
Advantages:
It squashes market overreactions, thus promoting pragmatic outcomes.
Improves decision-making with objective analysis.
Conclusion
When you adopt football betting strategies, they build a learning curve that teaches discipline. While basic strategies take less time to master, advanced strategies require patience. So, start with the basics before taking on complex equations.
Finally, understand that no strategy guarantees straightforward profits. The outcome depends on how well you execute them with a focus on long-term consistency.
