Every time anyone places a bet, the question that comes around is how much they should put on the game's outcome. Other important things to consider are who to bet on, which sportsbook you should choose, why you should bet on the specific championship and the most crucial question seems to be how much money you should place on the bet. Most bettors will usually stare at how much they have left in the bank first before making this decision.
If they have a decent amount of cash, then they are likely to bet with maximum stakes. But if they are not feeling the excitement or in a bad mood, they'll simply stake less. This is a big mistake for any punter, as instant decisions based on emotions and moods won't help them raise the chance of winning.
The Answer: Kelly Criterion
Before we discuss the Kelly Criterion further, you must know that it is not a betting strategy. It's a mathematical formula that can help you determine how much money to stake on a bet. To put it simply, the Kelly Criterion can help you calculate the expected profit size based on the money you have placed on the value bet and let your bankroll grow exponentially.
The Kelly Criterion is becoming increasingly popular for football bettors as a method to decide on the precise amount of value of every bet according to the betting value. There are two main formulas in Kelly Criterion, a simplified formula, and an extended formula. The simplified formula is a favourite for bettors, as it doesn't have as many numbers and variables as the extended one. In football betting, the Kelly Criterion is known to be the best tool for maximum profit compared to other betting strategies.
Why is This Strategy Called "Kelly"?
The man behind this formula was named John Kelly, who was not a bettor. He was an employee at AT&T's Bell Laboratory since 1950 and he came up with the formula and published it in 1956.
The formula became an instant hit in the betting community, where punters familiar with mathematical equations utilize it to help them gain maximum profit in a short period of time.
The Kelly Criterion Formula
Before trying out the Kelly Criterion, the first thing to consider is that it is best to use decimal odds. This is because this odds format will make it much easier for you to make the necessary calculations. The winning formula of the Kelly Criterion looks like this:
((B x P) – Q) / B
Let's look into the components that make up this equation. The B represents the odds of the bet. As we are using decimal odds, punters need to subtract 1 by the value of the odds that are allowed to be placed. In simpler terms, let’s assume that you want to bet on an event at odds of 5.00. If you are committed to betting as much as $20, then you can win as much as $100. This makes your (B) equal to 5 but remember that we need to subtract 1 from the odds vale, making it into 4 including the stake.
The next parameter is P, which represents the probability of your bet becoming a winner. Keep in mind that the probability we show here is according to the user’s calculations. For example, let's say that the likelihood of your bet to become a winner is up to 40%, then this indicates that the overall probability of your stake granting you a winning bet is 0.40.
The Q reflects the probability of your stake that can result in a loss. Therefore, as we have assumed that the chances of your stake to become a winner are 40%, then there is a chance of 60% for your stake to become a loss. In this case, the value for Q equals 0.60. This shows that football bettors may find out the probability of failure by subtracting the likelihood of success.
Now, let's get back to the previous equation. With all the prior odds, the equation will add up to this:
((4x 0.40)-0.60) / 4 = 0.25 =25%
This shows that according to the Kelly Criterion formula, you should stake 25% of the amounts you have set for betting. Keep in mind that this is a high percentage and the ideal amount you should bet is 3% of your bankroll or less. The end value showing a positive value also shows that you have the advantage, which means that you have a bigger chance of gaining more significant rewards.
The experienced football bettors may agree that the Kelly Criterion is one of the best ways to make profits. This is due to the decreased risk as part of the method. In contrast to what most people know, the Kelly Criterion might gain even more popularity and demand, as football bettors should ensure that their calculators are accurate and working correctly, as you don't want to end up with a burnt-out bankroll in just a few bets.
Final Thoughts of Kelly Criterion Strategy
Kelly Criterion is a method that requires deep research. The key to success for this method is to enter the mentioned variables in the right way and keep doing it for a long time. Some football bettors consider this betting method to be a valuable tool to estimate the amount they should stake, while other bettors think it is useless.
Remember that this betting method may not offer a fast 100% success rate, which means even though you have been utilizing it, it does not mean you'll win consistently. Besides that, bettors should keep in mind that they should look for value bets which also requires a bit of research. Overall, the Kelly Criterion might not be the best method to boost your chances of pleasing results, but it can turn out to be a reliable tool if you know how to manage your funds effectively.
