Look at Relevant Data from Stats

A few decades ago, stats weren't as abundant and easy to access as they are today. Nowadays, we are spoiled with choice and the variety of information available from squads and managers is out of this world. Obtaining relevant data and taking out ones you don't need is crucial for making more effective bets and helping you become a successful bettor.

These days, everyone wants to be a stats nerd and throw out the numbers of Messi's total goals of Cristiano Ronaldo's pass completion percentage once a major league starts. However, not all these stats are worth looking at, so which football stats are worth your attention to make your betting decisions more profitable?

Check out our Football Stats 101 - A Guide for Beginners to make you more understand about football stats.

The Basics of Football Statistics

The fundamental stats like the data of the past six matches should be your priority, along with the two teams' head-to-head (H2H) record. Indeed, players and managers come and go, making H2H records an invalid tool for predicting, but specific teams still have a consistent aspect that never fades.

It may be a psychological thing, but it's likely a clash of strategies and playing styles. For example, Tottenham has only been crowned as a winner from five London derbies against Chelsea in 50 Premier League encounters from 1992.

Also, when Sunderland won 31 clashes in the top flight, Manchester United only suffered three losses. In addition, Everton has been victorious only nine times versus Merseyside rivals Liverpool in 49 Premier League matches with only eight wins in 49 against Manchester United.

Check out this tool to look at how current and previous Premier League clubs have performed against one another since the top flight formed in 1992

The Goals

It's an essential statistic you need, as goals are the goal! The average goals scored and lost by a team are good indicators of how well they'll perform in the next matches. There might be many exceptions for this theory, as successful teams can possibly win scores like 1:0 and 2:1, while weaker teams can be victorious with a 5:0 once in a while and keep losing their games afterwards. However, in the long run, a team with more goals scored tends to win more games.

Besides the 1x2 bets, the goal-scoring data of teams can also benefit other popular bet types, like the BTTS (both teams to score) and the under/over.

If we look at Manchester City's stats, they have been scoring a lot this season with net 2,7 goals per game! In this case, betting that they will score over 1.5 or even over 2.5 goals in the match is a reasonable bet.

BTTS bets are a bit trickier, as most goal-scoring teams usually concede a few goals. However, when we look at these stats deeper, we can find more interesting trends. Like derby matches tend to make more goals than it might be expected from the team's averages.

Another type of bet within the goal-scoring category is the given player scoring goal. This provides a different stats spectrum that is related to the performances, abilities and form of the particular player. This means that Messi and Ronaldo will continue to score more goals.

Expected Goals and Shots

When an injury strikes a key player (especially forwards), it will impact the goal expectancy. This means that you need to assess how goals scored and conceded are affected by the absence of a key striker. However, luck or variance can also be a big factor.

The natural variance of performance found within expected goals is why many bettors and football analysts use it as a critical metric. A team's XG measures the number of goals they can score on average with the number of shots they've taken in specific areas of the field. Indeed, it's quite a complex calculation.

It's not easy to find regular stats on XG, as they're hard to come by. You can try following Michael Caley on Twitter as he publishes graphics that show XG for almost all the leading European matches. You should also check out the APWin website for all the stats you need to make winning bets which include our detailed XG statistics you can find in the ‘form’ and ‘team form’ tabs. Or, if you're brave and determined, you can even compile your own XG stats.

You can also focus on simple shots metrics to keep it simple. Even if a club struggles to score, they may have been racking up above-average shots on goal. So, it's worth looking at total shots on and off-target in recent games as it could pay dividends. On some occasions, you may encounter generous odds on the 1X2 market on some occasions, or there could also be value on the overs.

Final Thoughts of the Most Important Stats

In the end, all stats should be put into context as not all of them can show a straightforward explanation of the game. For example, a bad run or goal can be due to the star players being on the sidelines, or perhaps they are currently trying out a new formation.

Keep in mind that all the stats listed here are in the public domain. Professional bettors play with even more data along with predictive modelling and information from within the clubs.