When you bet on sports, the aim is simple: win more than you lose. However, some of your fellow bettors chase favourites or go with gut instinct, only to see their bankroll shrink over time. If you want to flip the odds in your favour, you need to start betting with a strategy.
That’s where value betting comes in. Instead of asking, “Who will win?” you ask, “Are the odds on offer better than they should be?” Once you think in that direction, you stop betting blindly and start betting smartly.
In this APWin Academy Guide, you’ll learn what a value bet is, how to calculate it, how to use a value bet calculator, why betting for value works long-term, and how you can apply it. Continue reading for the detailed guide.
What is a Value Bet in Sports Betting?
A value bet is a wager where the bookmaker’s odds underestimate the true probability of an outcome. In simple terms, it’s when you believe something is more likely to happen than the betting odds suggest.
For example, imagine a football match where Manchester United are priced at odds of 3.00. The implied probability of those odds is 33.3%. If your research tells you United actually have a 40% chance of winning, you’ve found value. You’re betting in a situation where the odds are stacked in your favour, not the bookmaker’s.
That’s the key difference between you as a value bettor and casual bettors. While casual bettors chase likely winners, you focus on profitable opportunities. You might lose individual bets, but over the long run, you still come out ahead because the math works in your favour.
How to Calculate a Value Bet?
To bet for value, you need to compare two numbers: the bookmaker’s implied probability and your own estimated probability. Here’s the process.
Convert the odds into implied probability: The formula is simple
Implied probability = 1 ÷ decimal odds
Example: Odds of 3.00 - 1 ÷ 3.00 = 0.3333 - 33.3% chance.
Estimate the true probability: This is where your judgement, data, and analysis come in. Let’s say you believe the team has a 40% chance to win.
Compare the two: If your probability (40%) is greater than the implied probability (33.3%), it’s a value bet.
Calculate expected value (EV): The EV tells you the long-term profit per unit staked:
EV = (probability × odds) - 1
(0.40 × 3.00) - 1 = 1.20 - 1 = +0.20 - 20% expected profit.
That 20% doesn’t mean you’ll win the bet. It means if you placed this same bet 100 times in identical situations, you’d expect to make 20 units profit per 100 units staked.
Using a Value Bet Calculator
Doing these calculations manually can be time-consuming, especially when you’re analysing multiple matches. That’s where a value bet calculator helps. You simply input:
The bookmaker’s odds
Your estimated probability
The calculator instantly shows you:
Implied probability
Whether value exists (Yes/No)
Expected value (EV) as a percentage
Optional stake size suggestion (based on Kelly Criterion)
This tool ensures you don’t miss opportunities because of mental math errors. Even a simple spreadsheet can serve as a reliable value bet calculator.
Betting for Value vs Betting for Winners
At first, value betting feels absurd. You’ll often bet on underdogs because that’s where bookmakers make the biggest mistakes. Betting for value doesn’t mean you’re always backing winners - it means you’re backing outcomes that pay better than they should.
Imagine a mid-table Premier League team over a run of ten matches. Bookmakers might consistently price them as heavy underdogs, suggesting only a 20-25% chance of winning. But when you account for factors like injuries and recent performances, the real probability could be closer to 30-35%.
Even if the team only wins three of those ten games, the high odds (around 4.00 on average) would generate enough returns to cover the seven losses and still leave a profit. That’s the core principle of value betting.
How to Estimate True Probability?
Your biggest challenge isn’t the math - it’s estimating probabilities correctly. Here are methods you can use:
Statistical models: Create simple rating systems like Elo or Poisson models for football. These give you baseline probabilities.
Market comparison: Check betting exchanges or sharp bookmakers with tighter margins. If your local bookmaker’s odds differ significantly, you may spot value.
Situational factors: Consider injuries, travel schedules, motivation, and even weather. For example, a cricket team might underperform in humid conditions, or a basketball team might struggle on the road after back-to-back games.
Historical data: Look at how often similar teams in similar situations have won historically.
Estimating probabilities isn’t guesswork. The more consistent and data-driven you are, the more reliable your value bets become.
Where to Find Value Bets?
You won’t find value in every market. Bookmakers are sharp on popular leagues and matches. But value often appears in less obvious spots:
Niche markets: Player props, corners, cards, and other side markets are less tightly priced.
Lower leagues: Bookmakers focus on big competitions. Smaller leagues can hide plenty of mispriced odds.
Early lines: When bookmakers first release odds, they may not reflect all information. If you are a sharp bettor, you must take the advantage in seconds.
Promotions and boosts: Sometimes, price boosts create genuine value compared to market averages.
Line movement: If most bookmakers adjust odds but one lags, you can scoop value before they catch up.
Common Mistakes in Value Betting
Many times, you hear about value betting but still fall into traps. Here are things you must avoid:
Overestimating accuracy: If you constantly assign probabilities without checking results, you’ll inflate your edge.
Chasing short-term results: Losing streaks are normal. Don’t abandon value betting just because you lost five in a row.
Ignoring bankroll management: Value means little if you risk too much and blow your account.
Misreading market moves: Not all odds shifts are signals of value. Sometimes, they’re reactions to insider info you don’t have.
Why Value Betting Works Long-Term?
Bookmakers load their odds with margins, and that’s exactly why you lose if you bet like a casual punter. Your job is to flip that edge. When you find prices that underestimate the true probability, you turn the bookmaker’s margin against them. You won’t win every bet, but over hundreds of wagers, you grind out profit because the math works for you, not them.
Think of it like card counting in blackjack. You don’t sit back and hope for luck - you push harder when the deck tilts in your favour. In sports betting, those value bets are your “favourable decks,” and that’s when you step in and strike.
Conclusion
When you ask, “What is a value bet in sports betting?” the answer is simple: it’s a bet where your calculated probability beats the bookmaker’s implied probability. In other words, if you think a team has a higher chance to win than what the bookmaker’s odds suggest, that’s a value bet.
But it’s not just about using a calculator. You need to build a solid way of predicting games and manage your money carefully. When you always look for value, you stop betting blindly against the bookmaker. Instead, you compete with them on equal ground. You won’t win every time, but you’ll give yourself a real chance to make a profit over the long run.
