If you’ve been betting on football for a while, you probably stick to the familiar markets - match winner, over/under goals, both teams to score, maybe corners or cards. But there’s a quieter, lesser-known bet type option that can open up fresh angles and value: goal kick betting. Unlike the usual markets that everyone follows, goal kick bets let you predict something that happens dozens of times in a match but rarely gets the spotlight.
This APWin Academy guide will show you exactly what goal kick betting is, how bookies settle it, the types of markets you’ll find, and smart strategies you can use. We will also share practical examples and a few tips that come from experience. By the time you’re done reading, you’ll know how to add goal kicks into your betting adventure.
What Is Goal Kick Betting?
A goal kick happens when the ball crosses the goal line, last touched by the attacking team, without a goal being scored. The defending side restarts play from within their goal area. Since this is such a regular event in football, bookmakers have turned it into a betting market.
When you place a goal kick bet, you’re wagering on how many times this restart will happen during the match, or which team will be involved in a specific scenario. Think of it like corners or throw-ins - it’s a countable, trackable event.
The Main Types of Goal Kick Bets
When you open up a betting site that offers this market, you’ll usually find a few variations:
Total Goal Kicks (Over/Under): You bet on whether the total number of goal kicks in the match will be over or under a set line. Example: Over 10.5 or Under 10.5.
Goal Kick Ranges: Instead of just over/under, you choose a bracket like 0-5, 6-10, 11-15. If the match ends with that total, you win.
First Goal Kick: You predict which team will take the first goal kick of the match.
Last Goal Kick: You predict which team will take the last goal kick before the final whistle.
Team-Specific Totals: Some bookies also offer markets on how many goal kicks one specific team will take.
Each variation has its own appeal, but the total goal kicks market is the most popular because it’s easy to track and fits well with in-play betting.
How do Bookmakers Settle Goal Kick Bets?
Before you place a goal kick bet, always check how your bookmaker defines and settles it. In general, here’s what you can expect:
A goal kick counts once the referee officially awards it. Even if the kick is retaken due to encroachment or a technical error, it still only counts as one.
Bets usually cover the full 90 minutes plus added time, but not extra time or penalties.
If a match is abandoned or postponed, most bookmakers void the bet unless the game is completed within a set period.
It’s worth noting that rules can differ slightly between betting sites. Some might be strict about whether a retaken kick counts, and others might have specific wording about abandoned games. Always read the terms and conditions before betting.
Why Bet on Goal Kicks?
At first glance, betting on goal kicks may seem odd. Why would you bother when you can just bet on goals or corners? But there are solid reasons why this market can be worth your time:
Less attention from the crowd: Other bettors tend to ignore this market, which means the odds aren’t always as sharp as in popular markets.
Predictable patterns: Teams that dominate possession and shoot often will force their opponents into conceding more goal kicks. Defensive teams under pressure naturally take more.
In-play opportunities: If you’re watching a match and notice a clear trend - for example, constant shots going wide - you can jump in with a live bet on goal kicks.
Factors That Influence Goal Kicks
If you want to win on goal kick betting, you need to look deeper than just guessing. Here are the main factors that affect how many goal kicks happen in a match:
Team styles: High-pressing teams and those that take lots of shots usually create more goal kicks for their opponents. Defensive teams sitting deep also concede them often.
Shot volume and accuracy: A team that takes 20 shots with half going off target will almost guarantee plenty of goal kicks.
Match state: A team leading by a goal might defend deep, inviting more shots and more goal kicks.
Pitch conditions: Poor weather or a heavy pitch can make shots less accurate, leading to more goal kicks.
Referee approach: Some referees are stricter with restarts, while others allow more play to continue. This can slightly affect totals.
When you combine these factors, you start to build a picture of how a game might play out in terms of goal kicks. Let’s say you’re looking at a Premier League match between Manchester City and Burnley.
City averages 18 shots per match, with many going just wide.
Burnley typically sit deep and clear their lines under pressure.
In Burnley’s last five matches, they’ve conceded an average of 9 goal kicks.
Your bookmaker sets the line at Over/Under 10.5 total goal kicks. Based on the data, you decide to back Over 10.5 at odds of 1.90. You stake $20. If the match ends with 11 or more goal kicks, you win $18 profit. If there are 10 or fewer, you lose your stake.
Live Goal Kick Betting
In-play betting is where goal kick markets can get really interesting. Odds often lag behind match events, which means you can catch value if you’re paying attention.
For example, if there have already been 7 goal kicks by halftime and the line is still at Over 10.5, you might get strong odds to back the over, knowing the match is trending that way.
The key is to combine live viewing with your pre-match research. If you already expected a high number of goal kicks and the first half confirms it, doubling down in-play can be a smart move.
Strategies to Use
Here are a few tested strategies you can apply when betting on goal kicks:
Research shot data: Look at average shots per team, shot accuracy, and shots conceded. This is the strongest predictor of goal kicks.
Target mismatches: Games where one team dominates possession often lead to high totals for the underdog.
Avoid low-stakes friendlies: Matches with little intensity produce fewer shots, which means fewer goal kicks.
Use ranges: If your bookmaker offers 6-10, 11-15 brackets, these can give you better value than a straight over/under.
Keep stakes small: Goal kick markets don’t have the same liquidity as match winner markets, so don’t overcommit.
Why You Should Try Goal Kick Betting?
Adding goal kicks to your betting portfolio gives you a new angle that most people ignore. You’re no longer tied only to goals or match outcomes, but to an event that happens dozens of times a game. If you do your homework, read the patterns, and manage your stakes, this market can give you a steady, lower-profile way of finding value.
The key is treating it seriously: study the stats, check the bookmaker rules, and use live betting smartly. Once you start building confidence, you’ll see how goal kicks can be more than just a restart - they can be a winning bet.
